Best Football Betting Strategy Ever
Betfair.com is the biggest sports betting exchange. In Betfair the players bet against each other and not against the Betfair itself. Because of this, the stakes ratios are higher here than anywhere else. Another difference is that in the betting exchange you can not only buy stakes, but also sell them, which opens up new money earning possibilities – sports trading.
The idea behind it is the same as in the currency, stock and product markets – to buy cheaper and sell at a higher price. The difference is that the ratio is affected by the performance of the team or the sportsman.
Develop Your Own Strategy. Lastly, you could take the harder — but potentially most rewarding — route: develop your very own profitable Value Betting Strategy. For this I highly recommend reading the following posts: 10 Common Betting Strategy Mistakes (Biggest Flaws) The Basics Of Creating a Football Prediction Betting Model. Accurate Football Prediction. Every week, we provide soccer betting tips and predictions for over fifty football leagues based on their statistics and hard data, making Solopredict, the best football prediction site of the year 2019. We also love to blog about everything football betting and is updated on the latest happenings in the soccer world. Sports Betting Sites Find the best sports betting sites to place your wagers at online. Sports Betting Picks Free daily sports betting and DFS picks from a team of expert sports handicappers. Sports Betting Strategy Sports betting strategy articles that will help you learn how to win more money. Football is too unpredictable for that to be the case. So football betting strategy is somewhat more complicated than simply following a set of rules and watching the money roll in. There’s actually a wide range of different strategies that you can apply to your football betting decisions. In football, the most common modification is six points. So let’s say this week there are three bets you like: Jets -7.5, Raiders +1.5, and Bills +5.5. Rather than betting these straight or in a parlay, you could make a three team six point teaser bet of Jets -1.5, Raiders +7.5, Bills +11.5. To win the bet, you’ll need all three teams to cover.
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Football is the world’s most popular type of sports. Numerous football games take place every day in various countries of the world. To make the games more interesting, trading exchanges offer to predict the outcomes of the games and place bets on them.
Betfair.com also offers this opportunity, as well as a chance to trade or speculate with the stakes. The aim of the trading is to create a situation when, no matter what the outcome of the match is, you are still the winner. The main goal of sports trading is to create a situation when you are in profits no mater what the outcome is. Let`t get to the point!
Here are are 6 proven and profitable Betfair exchange Football trading strategies:
The simplest football trading strategy
Lay The Draw is the most popular Betfair football trading system. This Strategy is mostly used by beginners. If you apply this strategy to the correct type of match, you are almost guaranteed to profit 100% of the time.
The Strategy
The concept of this strategy is very simple – when a goal is scored in a football match, the prices of all the match outcomes (home win, away win or draw) changes. How it changes depends on many factors such as which team scores the goal and the time of the goal.
In this strategy we are trying to lay the draw before the kick-off, and back it at higher price after goal is scored, therefore securing a great profit.
Before the game: Select match by the following criteria:
- Favorite odds is lower than 2;
- Odds on draw is lower than 4;
- In last 3 games there haven`t been 0-0 draw for none of the teams;
- The favorite team scores more than one goal in match on average;
- Head-to-Head between the teams indicates lots of goal (should be within the last two years);
- The liquidity in the market should be at least 40 000.
In-Play:
- If the favorite team scores first, get out of position and green up;
- If the underdog scores first, use the “Metaltone” strategy: back the draw for 50% initial lay stake and lay the underdog for 75% initial lay stake. If there is an equalizing goal, you can then green up an take an overall profit. If there is no equalizing goal and the underdog wins the match, accept the loss (or in some cases small profit) that is sitting on the underdog team and move on to the next game;
- If still 0-0 when the draw price hits 2.0, “red” up and accept the loss.
A Score Grid visualization of this football trading strategy
Socrates strategy is a variation of the Aristotle and Clint strategies. It is designed to maximize profits and reduce the losses and does not require a lot of in play management.
Why this strategy works?
Using exact match selection criteria as in the Aristotle and Clint strategies, the Socrates becomes a simple trading strategy for beginners to implement. We take our positions in the market at the start of the match and only need to make any moves if the score is 0-0, or 1-0 after 60 minutes. Because of its simplicity it is possible to trade multiple matches at the same time.
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The edge in this strategy lies in the selection of right matches, the probability of teams scoring over 2.5 goals and how often these teams play a match where Both Teams are scoring a goal.
In this trade we are looking to win in two markets – Both Teams To Score and over 2.5 goals market to maximize our winnings.
In matches where one side scores 6 goals are often a consolation goal to loosing team which would give us double win.
How this strategy is played?
We are looking for football matches where the odds of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 goals markets are over 1.80.
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 40 back bet on Both Teams To Score YES market at odds of 1.80 or more;
- € 40 back bet on over 2.5 goals market at odds of 1.80 or more;
- € 8 back bet on Correct Score 0-0;
- € 12 back bet on Correct Score 1-1.
Correct score grid visualization of Socrates Betfair trading strategy
Bets and odds for Socrates strategy implementation
In the images above you can see a Correct score visualization of outcomes of this strategy. As we can see, the ROI if the bet lands is almost 50%, which is quite a lot.
You do not have to do any adjustments, unless the scoreline is 0-0 or 1-0 after 60 played minutes.
If the scoreline is 0-0 at 60 minute mark, green up 0-0 scoreline and scratch 1-1 scoreline. You will also have to take a hedged red on over/under 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets.
If the scoreline is 1-0 then green up 1-1 scoreline, and make a scratch trade on over 2.5 goals market and take a loss onBoth Teams To Score market.
Any other scoreline will give us an edge in this trade. If the scoreline does not change until 80 minutes then we need to take a look at it and make some adjustment if needed.
At that moment we can exit the trade or stay in it with a hope of win on 1-1 scoreline, over 2.5 or Both Teams To Score. Ideal would be a win in both markets – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS.
What can go wrong?
The downside in this strategy is 0-0 scoreline or two goals scored by one team. We can take an extra insurance position on 0-0 for a winnings of € 50. We can also take a small cover on 2-0 scoreline by backing 2-0 and 3-0 when the score is 1-0.
This is one of the most popular trading strategy on Betfair exchange. Over/Under 2.5 goals market is right next to the Match odds market in terms of liquidity. This Betfair trading strategy is based on teams scoring Over 2.5 goals and that happens a lot!
The strategy
Using this strategy we will use two markets Over/under 2.5 goals market and Correct score market for cover.
Under 2.5 means, we’d expect 2 or less goals
Over 2.5 means, we need to see at least 3 goals in the match.
This strategy is low-risk, because if the favorite scores at least 1 goal, we will be at non-lose point or scratch. Then we will have to wait only for 2 more goals for profit. But this strategy is not for newbies at it requires certain ability to adapt and trade in two different markets at the same time.
Before the game
- Look for games where there is a favorite priced 1.4-1.7;
- Odds on over 2.5 goals are 1.7 or higher
Bets
- Back bet on over 2.5
- Back bets on Correct scores 1-0, 2-0, 1-1. These bets must cover losses on Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Bets on Correct score market looks like this
As we can see if score turns 1-0 we cant lose anymore as next possible scores are covered (1-1, 2-0) and other possible scores are over 2.5 goals which means profit. If the favourite scores first goal early in the game, we can exit the trade with profit without waiting the game to end. If the odds on over 2.5 goals are higher, we can make a small bet on 0-2 in favor to underdog.
Correct score grid example of over 2.5 goals trading strategy on Betfair
Correct score grid view is one of the ways how to see the full picture of Betfair trading strategies. There is a software called Betpractice ScoreGrid, where you can see on which scorelines you will win and on which loose.
In this example you can see that if the favorite team scores a goal, then we have guaranteed a scratch trade. The only dangerous results are 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2, which are quite unlikely to happen. If wee look at the ROI figures for this football trade, then it is only 18% if there is over 2.5 goals in the match.
What can go wrong?
Of course scoreline 0-0 is the worst, where we loose all our bets in both markets. Therefore if you are watching the game and favorite is not at the best form and score at the halftime is 0-0 it is advised to leave the markets with a loss. Another option is to place a bet from the potential profit on scoreline 0-0. The odds on 0-0 will be shortened to about 4.0. By doing this, the only dangerous scoreline will be 0-1 in favor to underdog.
Summary
Over 2.5 goals is a great strategy for games where you are expecting goals. By the way, you only need one goal for strong favorite and you are in the safe spot! The potential profit is not huge – about 30% of the liability, but if you choose the right games, you will be in long term profits!
The Aristotle trading strategy is Over 2.5 goals market Football trading strategy with insurance positions in correct score market and Under 1.5 goals market.
Why this strategy works?
By doing a statistical research on the probability of over 2.5 goals scored in a football game and entering the market when the odds of over 2.5 goals are in our side.
How this strategy is played?
We’re looking for matches where there is a good statistical chance of both teams scoring, yet a price on over 2.5 goals of at least @1.90 (ideally higher). Where the price of over 2.5 is lower than @1.7 there is no value for us so we must wait to get involved.
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 58 (or 58% of the stake) back bet on Over 2.5 goals;
- € 14 (or 14% of the stake) back bet on 1-1;
- € 28 (or 28% of the stake) back bet on under 1.5 goals.
This is how pre-match bets on Aristotle trading strategy looks like
In the Correct Score grid above you can see how pr-game bets looks on this strategy. As you will have to implement moves in play, we can not calculate the probable ROI of this trade.
If there will be no goals scored early in the game, the odds of under 1.5 goals market will lower – that will create a profit to cover some of the potential loss on over 2.5 goals which, logically will be moving against us.
From the 23th minute of the game we should green ip Under 1.5 goals market as the first goals statistically are scored from the 24th minute of a match most often.
When the first goal is scored, a part of liability from over 2.5 goals market can be removed, and when the second goal is scored we can already hedge out for a profit.
If the underdog team scores the first goal we can place a lay bet off half our stake on 1-1 in order to reduce our liability on other scores to € 7.
If the result becomes 1-1 we can then lay off one more time for around € 25 to create a scratch on 1-1 and € 20 on all other scorelines.
When a football match goes as expected we can get a solid return of 20-80% of invested money.
Match Selection criteria:
If you want to make money on Betfair Football markets, then you will need to match the right football games with the right trading strategies.
To select the games for this strategy we use following criteria:
- Home team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
- Away team: Average goals scored, conceded, combined average, percentage of Over 2.5 goal games, percentage of Under 2.5, strength of attack and defense
Then the combined average score and the probability of over 2.5 goals is calculated
In match-ups where the calculated probably is more than 60% we will have a qualified game for trading and will look for odds of the right value to recommend a trade.
What can go wrong?
A dreaded 0-0 draw will make us loos all our stake. We can make an insurance bet on 0-0 or Under 0.5 goal markets for a half of our stake.
In this Betfair football trading strategy we are looking for a strong home side and odds of Over 2.5 goals market of 1.90 or more (ideally – 2.00 to 2.10) and Under 1.5 goals market is 3.60 or more.
The ideal scenario in this strategy is that both teams scores a goal, perfectly the game ends with 2-1 or 2-2.
You should also look in H2H statistics for recent games that has had goals and 1-1 games.
Bets in this strategy are placed before the game starts.
This trading strategy similar to the Aristotle strategy as the returns are 20 to 80% return if the game goes our way.
How this strategy is played:
In this strategy bets are placed pre-match. Let’s look at example, using 100 euro stake:
- € 60 back bet on Over 2.5 goals market;
- € 10 back bet on Correct score 1-1 (sometimes you may split 1-1 and 2-0 to favorite and stake 50-50);
- € 10 back bet on Under 1.5 goals market;
- € 20 back bet on Correct Scores 2-1 and 2-2 (you may back only 2-2, if both sides are evenly strong).
In Clint football strategy the over of 2.5 goals market should be at least 1.90. In some games, where the Scoreline 2-0 seems quite possible you can split the 1-1 and 2-0 Correct score cover bets.
Correct score grid example of The Clint Betfair trading strategy
As you can see in Correct score grid example above, the most dangerous scores in this strategy are 2-0 and 0-2. If the result becomes 1-1 at some point of the game, then we are in a really comfortable trading position as the maximum loss is only 10% of our stake, but probable profit is 200%.
This strategy can be very profitable if you can choose the right games to trade!
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Usually Over/Under bets are placed on 2.5 goals market. This Betfair trading strategy is based on Over 1.5 goals market, which is a more reliable market to place bets, because you will need only two goals in the game to win this bet.
The strategy
In this strategy we will be trading Football under 1.5 goals market.
Under 1.5 goals means, that there will be 0 or 1 goals,
Over 1.5 goals means, that there needs to be 2 or more goals scored in the match.
In this strategy the bets are placed only when the game has started or in-play, but never before the game.
The odds of Under 1.5 goals market tends to raise fast.
On average the odds for Over 1.5 goals are 1.30 or more before the match.
That is not enough to make a profit in long term. That is why you should not enter the market before the game. Sit back and just observe the match. Each minute without a goal will raise the odds.
After 15 minutes in the game, the odds should be at about 1.45.
After 30 minutes in the game the odds should be about 1.70 and if the first half will be goalless the odds usually will rise to 2.0 or more.
And that is what we are looking for! At this time we are going to place our bet.
You can place your bet in the 40. minute of the game if you want or you can wait till the half time. The later you will place your bet, the bigger your profits will be.
When the goal will be scored, the odds will drop significantly, usually back to 1.50 or less, if the goal will be scored till the 60th minute of the game. Then we can immediately trade out for an overall profit.
The time of the first goal will determine the profits. If the first goal will be scored between 46th and 55th minute then profits should be around 50% of bet amount. And it happens regularly!
In this strategy we are looking to place our bets after 30th minute of the game ,remember that.
After this time have passed without goals, check the odds of Over 1.5 goals market and if they are 1.50 or more make your bet.
For extra security, you can also check the in-play statistics.
If the last matches of teams have gone over 2.5 goals for both sides or at least the home side, make a bet.
If the goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of the game, this strategy is not suitable anymore.
Summary
This is a great universal betting strategy. The only minus is that you will have to follow the games – you’ll have to watch the games on your mobile phone or in some live-stream or at least keep an eye of live-scores and that will take a lot of time.
Recap of this strategy:
- Bet on over 1,5 goals market instead of 2,5 goals;
- Analyze games and bet only on the games that are predicted for over 2,5 goals;
- Do not place bets until the odds for Over 1,5 goals are at least1,50 or more;
- If the goal is scored till 60 minutes of the game, after you have placed a bet, you will make profit if you green up. You can also leave the bet and wait for one more goal.
Those looking to convert their football knowledge into income via a bookmaker will often use a mix of research and instincts as the basis for decision making on bets.
Yet, even when equipped with a profound knowledge of the sport, they can still be caught out without an adequate system or football betting strategy.
Despite having confidence in your own ability to make the right calls on football markets, as we all know things don’t always pan out as predicted in football and sport in general.
That’s why bettors need to have a strategy that they stick to in order to nullify the potential of abnormal results harming your bankroll.
In this guide, we’ll analyse a few betting systems in football to give more food for thought for punters who follow the global game, and help you decide on your overall betting strategy on the sport.
Table of Contents
- Betting Systems That Work
- The Betting System That MIGHT Work For You
- Betting Systems That DON’T Work
Betting Systems That Work
We’ve split this up into two sections for you.
This first section looks at betting systems that really work.
With these, you’re either guaranteed or have a good chance of making regular profits:
Matched Betting
Are you looking for a football betting system that works every single time?
The number one and by far the best football betting system is matched betting.
Unlike a few other methods listed in this post, matched betting is the only football system that is virtually risk-free (barring human error and gubbings) and will continue to deliver big profits time and time again.
The trick is to back bets and then lay them off so that you can’t actually lose a bet – regardless of the outcome, you will win.
You should be doing this on promotions where a bookmaker has promised to match your bet with a free bet. By laying off your bet, you can’t lose. You are guaranteed a free bet regardless of the outcome of the game.
You can then also lay off the free bet to ensure you make a profit no matter what.
You are guaranteed to make a profit every single month with the matched betting system.
We’ve made over £75,000 in profit since starting matched betting — and we’ve never had a losing month. (If you’re in the UK, you can start here for free.)
Best Sports Betting Strategy
Betfair Trading
Did you know you can make money on football – or any sport – without even using a bookmaker?
By using Betfair Exchange, you can back for and against outcomes similarly to how you would on a regular bookmaker.
However, you will get better odds and the ability to ‘trade’ odds in real-time – you can buy and sell just like on a stock exchange.
Whether you’re betting pre-match or in-play, you can use trading to make guaranteed profits.
This can be a complex process to get your head around, but we have a post that should really help you out: The Definitive Guide to Betfair Trading.
The Betting System That MIGHT Work For You
This is a bankroll management system, rather than strictly a football betting system, but it is something you should definitely consider:
The Kelly Criterion
Based on sound money management, the Kelly Criterion is a betting system that implements a calculated method to determine the stake of a bet on an outcome with higher-than-expected odds.
The system maximises the value of the bet by determining the percentage of your bankroll you should use.
There are many variations of this formula, and some appear comprehensible only to math wizards, but here we’ve put it in layman’s terms.
Stake = (Decimal Odds x % Chance Win) – 1) / (Decimal Odds – 1) * 100
Stake = Maximum stake
Decimal Odds = Odds offered by the bookmaker
% Chance Win = Probability of winning as determined by you, expressed as a decimal point
Let’s say you have calculated the probability as 55% (0.55) on an even-money (2.0) bet:
Stake = ((2.0 x 0.55) – 1) / (2.0 – 1) x 100
Stake = ((1.10 – 1) / 1) x 100
Stake = 10%
MAKING THAT EASIER FOR YOU…
For those who get headaches from formulas such as the above, the stake, put simply, is the difference between the probability of winning and losing as determined by you.
If you don’t have an edge, or have a negative edge, then don’t bet.
Just like any system the Kelly Criterion has its drawbacks, and these are quite pronounced in football betting.
Firstly, using the example above, it often asks you to invest a significant amount of your bankroll on a bet.
Given it’s an aggressive strategy that looks to maximise your profits, you’ll find that a large stake is often required.
The second and most significant shortcoming of this betting system lies in the Kelly Criterion’s assumption that a bettor is able to accurately predict the probability of a certain outcome.
If you misinterpret a team’s chance of winning as a percentage value, the calculations behind this method become skewed and you pay the price.
Therefore, if deciding to test the method in football betting, perhaps it’s better to be conservative and avoid overestimating the probability of a victory.
That will ensure your stakes aren’t exuberant and the losses don’t eat up all of your bankroll.
Betting Systems That DON’T Work
Here, we look at the betting systems that are not sensible or profitable long-term investments of time or money.
Whilst you may have heard about them elsewhere, or have been recommended them by people you think you can trust, they are absolutely not worth pursuing – ever.
Martingale Method
First, let’s get the football betting systems that should be avoided out of the way.
The Martingale Method basically entails a bettor doubling their stake immediately following any losing even-money bet, thereby allowing the first win to recover all previous losses.
Good in theory, not quite the case in reality.
Why? Because a run of bad luck could essentially bankrupt any bettor using this method.
Let’s say you lost four even-money bets in a row having put £10 on your first wager. Your second bet would have to be £20, third £40 and fourth £80. Before you know it you’re out of pocket to the tune of £150.
Anyone who has invested time and money in sports betting understands that no matter how sound your research and analysis has been, a series of losing bets by account of bad luck is entirely possible.
This method is common in roulette and people think it’s fail-proof. Well, let me tell you, chasing losses is never good – I’ve seen it land on black 20 times in a row before, seriously.
So, when implementing the Martingale Method it may seem tempting to think: “The next win will make up for all the previous losses.”
The reality is a lot different. That win may not come before you realise that you’re out of cash.
It’s simply not wise to chase your losses when gambling in general, and this is method asks you to do so blindly.
Stay clear of the of the Martingale Method when wagering on football – the only way it would ever work is if you had infinite amounts of money. This is impossible of course.
Fibonacci Method
Among the three possible outcomes to football matches – win, loss or draw – one often gets overlooked, the draw.
Perhaps this is because they can be more difficult to pick than either Team A or Team B winning.
That’s certainly the reasoning behind implementing the Fibonacci Method, which is based on the theory that it is harder for bookmakers to predict a draw that the other two possible outcomes.
So, by using the Fibonacci Method in football betting, the bettor tries to exploit this.
The Fibonacci Method is based on a mathematical sequence where each new number equals the total of the previous two.
It looks like this: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… and so on.
How does this all apply to football?
Well, implementing this method has been encouraged on those wishing to bet on draws.
Basically, the method entails the implementation of two principles:
- Find bets on draws with a probability above 2.618 as reflected by bookmaker odds
- In the case of losing bets, increase your subsequent betting stake by following the Fibonacci sequence
As with the Martingale Method, Fibonacci thinking relies on continually increasing your stake to cover your previous losses.
We’ve outlined the dangers of this, but by comparison to the Martingale Method the increases within a sequence of Fibonacci bets are gradual, thereby minimising the total amount of liability during a bad run.
That’s not to say that this method protects you from the risks of seeing your bankroll disappear in the case of losing streak. It can.
But the mathematical principle behind the Fibonacci approach is a lot more measured than simply doubling your stake each time.
If pursuing this method, perhaps it’s worth reviewing the amount of draws that have taken place across several seasons in different leagues, and choosing a league where draws are more common.
With some statistical analysis as your back-up, this is certainly a method that would be worth testing the success of over time.
Betting Systems: Are They for You?
It’s all about maximising your edge over the bookmaker in the sports gambling business.
With matched betting, you can guarantee that edge 100% of the time. Sign up for our free matched betting course via this link.
Other than that, a betting system based on proven mathematical principles is a good starting point.
Look towards Betfair Trading or challenge bets.
Combine that with sound knowledge of the sport and disciplined decision making, and you may have found a pathway to profit.
But as this post has highlighted, there are risks aligned with some betting systems when it is applied to football, some more prominent then others.
What Is The Best Betting Strategy
Assessing the value of one betting system over another is crucial, so hopefully we’ve helped with that.
Testing the one you think is most risk averse is perhaps worth pursuing, but if over time the numbers don’t add up it’s not the strategy for you.
Through patience, discipline and perhaps a little bit of a conservative streak, you may just find that a betting system can give you the advantage you crave.